🔗 Share this article

Just 48 hours prior to the New York mayoral election, Michael Lange issued a significant forecast – not just the winner citywide, but block by block. Lange, a political analyst who grew up in the city, has spent more than ten years in progressive politics and emerged as something of a well-known figure recently for his deep dives into municipal statistics and voter surveys.

He released his highly detailed forecast map – accurately predicting that the progressive candidate was victorious while failed to predict Andrew Cuomo’s strong performance – on his newsletter, the Narrative War. Lange has a flair for witty coinages. He highlighted, for instance, the divide between the progressive stronghold, stretching from Park Slope to another area to Astoria, where he predicted (accurately) that the left-wing candidate would win by large leads, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. In those areas, certain media outlets and Wall Street Journal outrank the New York Times” in readership and most voters leaned toward Cuomo, campaigning as a moderate alternative.

Election Night Patterns and Surprises

How was your election night?

I had to do that because they were adding around 200,000 ballots into the system frequently! I was actually somewhat anxious at the beginning: The candidate led the early vote by a dozen percentage points, but came two big batches of votes added after that and the advantage dropped from 12 to 8%. I was worried.

You know, there was a world in which yesterday went kind of poorly for him, where Cuomo was going to end up basically doubling his votes from the Democratic primary. However the winner added 500,000 votes to his primary coalition, and that’s a huge reason why he won. He campaigned and massively expanded his base from the primary.

Coalition Building

Where did the mayor-elect gain those extra votes from?

He built the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: it’s multiracial, youthful, tenants and it’s people squeezed by affordability. He improved considerably with minority communities, everyday New Yorkers, compared to the primary. Plus he boosted his core of left-leaning activists, youthful radicals, and immigrant groups. He couldn’t have won without expanding his appeal.

He built the coalition that progressives always wanted to build: diverse, youthful, tenants and residents struggling with costs

There were also a number of Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It is a real thing, limited to Hispanic laborers, south Asians and Islamic voters. Voters in immigrant strongholds that supported Trump last year backed the progressive now. However it’s not that he was winning over Caucasian laborers and Maga voters.

Turnout and Impact

A major development of the night was the record turnout. Who did that help?

Each candidate. Participation was significantly higher than anticipated. I figured it could go over 2 million, but it’s closer to 2.3M – that is a huge number of participants. There was a decent opposition group, energized, but the Mamdani base was equally driven, and that was enough to secure victory.

You forecasted he’d get over 50% of the vote. Is he likely for that?

Currently it appears he’s likely to get over 50%. He’s at 50.4% but remain probably 200K ballots uncounted at that time. So it’s not certain, but I think it’s likely, and I hope he achieves it because then no one can say the Republican was a disruptor.

GOP Decline

Curtis Sliwa, the conservative contender, is the other big story. His vote plummeted.

He didn’t win any district in any borough. Not even one neighborhood in the borough, which is like an highly conservative area. That truly was unexpected. Cuomo held very white areas, very wealthy areas and very religiously Jewish areas, and then added many conservatives on Staten Island who had a high participation. I believe there was significant tactical voting by GOP voters. They were doing it before the former president endorsed for the candidate, but that definitely helped. It could have even turned the tide if Mamdani’s coalition hadn’t grown.

The “Commie Corridor”

Regarding your much mentioned left-wing base – did backing for the candidate overwhelming in those parts of the boroughs?

In my view existed a little dilution of the progressive zone in certain places like neighborhoods that have more older white ethnic folks. In Astoria, for example, the Greek landlords and residents all went for the independent. So there was a little resistance. But no, largely the commie corridor is a key factor why Mamdani won – he was polling between high percentages in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Community Support

In the lead-up to the election there was coverage on whether the candidate was making inroads with Jewish New Yorkers. Any indication that he succeeded?

Exist neighborhoods with a lot of non-religious and left-inclined voters – such as Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he did well. However in the affluent districts such as the Upper East Side, his Middle East stance definitely mattered there. Similarly in the moderate communities including Queens neighborhoods, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they favored Cuomo. And also, you have newcomers from Eastern Europe in the borough, who were strongly supportive. Therefore I don’t know if existed major surprises here, but Mamdani did hold more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and including sections of the Upper West Side by big margins.

Political Impact

Did Mamdani redefine what the city means politically? Will the commie corridor serve as a springboard for leftwing candidates?

Yes, it’s not accidental that key political leaders from the left hail from a few areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I believe that there will be more of that – candidates will come from these neighborhoods to be elevated nationally.

However I believe that every city in America can have their own commie corridor. Cities are the epicenters of leftwing power in America – since they’re young, people rent and they are places where individuals struggle by the inequalities we face.