🔗 Share this article

Elections are now in progress for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again emerge victorious, although analysts believe the party stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously achieved a shock top result and established a multi-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to win between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

However, PVV's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the previous government in June amid a dispute concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a election period dominated by issues such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, expected to gain between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive D66, predicted to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with some facing heavy declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no one party is expected to win a majority, and Holland has been governed by multi-party governments – often including four parties in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is shut out of government. But, opponents and experts say that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

While the final outcome is uncertain and coalition talks may require several months, analysts suggest that following the most radical administration in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive alliance headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is expected shortly after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must face a confidence vote in the house before assuming power.